One card, one try
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Suppose you hold two pairs, Jacks and
10s, after 6 cards have been dealt in a single deck
seven-card stud game, and your other cards give you
no other chance of a straight or a flush. Let us say
for example that many of the other players have folded,
and as a result 2 other cards are showing on the board.
You have therefore, seen 28 cards, and 24 remain hidden
from you, some in the deck and some with your opponents.
Only four of these cards, (the jacks and 10s) can significantly
improve your hand. If none has been shown, your chances
of getting a full house (and being very likely to win)
are 4 in 24 (1 in 6); if one has shown, 3 in 24 (1 in
8); if three have shown, your chances of improving are
only 1 in 24, which is usually small enough to forget
about.
A player should always take care to remember to distinguish
between the probability of improving their hand and
the probability of having the winning hand.

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