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Suppose you hold two pairs, Jacks and 10s, after 6 cards have been dealt in a single deck seven-card stud game, and your other cards give you no other chance of a straight or a flush. Let us say for example that many of the other players have folded, and as a result 2 other cards are showing on the board. You have therefore, seen 28 cards, and 24 remain hidden from you, some in the deck and some with your opponents.

Only four of these cards, (the jacks and 10s) can significantly improve your hand. If none has been shown, your chances of getting a full house (and being very likely to win) are 4 in 24 (1 in 6); if one has shown, 3 in 24 (1 in 8); if three have shown, your chances of improving are only 1 in 24, which is usually small enough to forget about.

A player should always take care to remember to distinguish between the probability of improving their hand and the probability of having the winning hand.

 
Friday, July 25, 2008

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